“For the simplicity that lies this side of complexity, I would not give a fig, but for the simplicity that lies on the other side of complexity, I would give my life,” once stated Oliver Wendell Holmes, a U.S. Supreme Court justice. Indeed, but how does one navigate the complexities of society and infinite possible futures to decide on a course of action?
Learning how to anticipate, and create, the future you want
What could democracy look like in 2030? What is the long-term vision for government that we aspire to? And how can we get there? This is what this 3-month course explored, based on the backcasting and future casting approaches.
Backcasting is a strategic planning method where a relevant group of stakeholders start by imagining a desired future scenario and then work backward to identify the steps needed to achieve that future. Unlike traditional planning, which typically moves forward from the present, backcasting focuses on setting long-term goals and then determining the actions and decisions required to reach them. It is often used in futurecasting to create a clear pathway from the present to an ideal future state, helping organisations or individuals plan strategically to overcome challenges and capitalise on opportunities along the way.
Futurecasting is a wider, strategic process that helps individuals, organisations and communities model potential future scenarios and discuss those scenarios. Rather than predicting the future, it guides participants in imagining what might be possible within a specific timeframe and encourages the creation of new products, services, or experiences for that future. The process focuses on the holistic experience of the audience, taking into account not just a product or service’s function but how that audience will interact with it in various aspects of their lives. This forward-thinking approach helps participants envision future needs and how to meet them effectively.
The process of futurecasting relies on analysing trends in areas like technology, business, and social change. By examining how different trends intersect, participants can come up with innovative solutions that address future opportunities. For example, a transportation company might combine trends like the sharing economy and the Internet of Things to create a car-sharing service, similar to those provided by companies like ZipCar. Futurecasting provides public authorities, interest groups and NGOS with a way to break free from traditional planning methods and adopt a future-oriented mindset, which can be critical for staying relevant and adapting to rapid societal, technological and culture shifts.
Futurecasting is widely applicable and can be used by organisations of all sizes, as well as individuals. The process involves multiple steps, including gathering expert input, synthesising insights, creating future personas, and prototyping possible scenarios. This structured approach helps organisations develop innovative strategies and actionable plans that create value in the future. By backcasting from a desired future state, participants can develop concrete steps that can be taken immediately to begin building towards that future.
The future is wow
The primary outcome of a futurecasting workshop is the futurecasting report, which captures the insights and ideas developed during the session. The report’s quality depends on three factors: the expertise of invited specialists, the creativity during ideation, and the skill of the facilitators and futurists compiling the report. An effective report can be brief yet still capture the core insights and ideas generated during the workshop.
Beyond the report, another crucial deliverable of a futurecasting workshop is its impact on the relevant stakeholders. The most successful workshops profoundly influence participants, reshaping their perspectives and approaches to their work. Insights from experts challenge existing assumptions, and the ideas developed during the session often inspire attendees to apply these new concepts to their projects and strategic plans.
Ultimately, the transformative effect on the participants is as valuable as the written report itself. Attendees often return to their workplaces with a fresh outlook, applying the future-oriented thinking gained from the workshop in meaningful and actionable ways, thus driving innovation within their communities.
Services provided
- Visioning and scenario planning
- Designing and facilitating collaborative workshops and processes
- Research, writing, public speaking, moderating events
How to conduct a backcasting exercise?
How do you conduct a backcasting visioning and scenario planning process? There are four essential steps, described in the visuals below.
